sequence of returns risk Archives - ROI TV https://roitv.com/tag/sequence-of-returns-risk/ Mon, 09 Jun 2025 11:50:45 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.8.1 How to Actually Reach Financial Freedom: The Strategy That Works https://roitv.com/how-to-actually-reach-financial-freedom-the-strategy-that-works/ Mon, 09 Jun 2025 11:50:44 +0000 https://roitv.com/?p=3126 Image from Your Money, Your Wealth

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Financial freedom looks different for everyone. For some, it means being debt-free. For others, it’s about living comfortably. But at the end of the day, true financial freedom comes when your passive income covers your lifestyle and you no longer have to work unless you want to.

In this week’s episode, Big Al Klopp and I broke down exactly what it takes to get there and stay there. It’s not just about saving more; it’s about thinking differently about money, time, and the future.

What Financial Freedom Really Means

According to recent data, 54% of people define financial freedom as being debt-free, and 50% say it’s about living comfortably. Only 13% equate it with being rich.

For us, financial freedom means your passive income matches or exceeds your expenses. That’s the point where you get to choose how you spend your time.

But here’s the catch: freedom comes from cash flow, not just net worth. If you have millions in assets but no income from them, you’re still on the clock.

The Roadblocks That Get in the Way

Most people don’t get stuck because they’re lazy. They get stuck because of:

  • Not saving enough
  • Carrying too much debt
  • Living paycheck to paycheck
  • Emergencies that wipe out savings

Take credit card debt as an example. The average balance is $8,600, and if you pay just $272 per month, you’ll be at it for 53 months and spend $5,600 in interest.

If you want freedom, the first step is cutting the chains and for many, that starts with credit cards.

3 Steps to Financial Freedom

Big Al and I recommend this simple process:

  1. Inventory – Know your numbers: assets, liabilities, net worth
  2. Invest – Grow your money through smart allocation
  3. Sustain – Build systems to maintain freedom over time

Calculating your net worth is key. Add up what you own (bank accounts, retirement plans, real estate, etc.) and subtract what you owe (mortgages, loans, credit card balances). That’s your starting point.

And remember: always pay yourself first. Before you spend on wants, contribute to your 401(k), IRA, or savings account.

Taxes: The Sneaky Expense That Eats Your Freedom

Taxes are one of the biggest threats to financial independence. In California, a single filer earning $100,000 nets just $72,000 after taxes.

Want to fight back? Use:

  • 401(k) and IRA contributions to lower taxable income
  • Roth accounts for tax-free growth
  • Capital gains strategies married couples can pay 0% on gains if income is under $94,000

And don’t forget: IRA and 401(k) withdrawals in retirement are taxed like ordinary income. Plan ahead, or risk surprise tax bills later.

Retirement Savings: It’s Never Too Early (But Don’t Wait)

The math is simple. If you start saving $700/month at age 30, you could hit $1 million by 65. Wait until 50, and you’ll need $3,500/month to get there.

That’s the power of compound interest time is your biggest ally.

If you’re self-employed, look into:

  • Solo 401(k)s
  • SEP IRAs
  • SIMPLE plans

And if your employer offers a match? Don’t leave free money on the table.

Build an Emergency Fund (Before You Need It)

Before you start investing aggressively, make sure you’ve got 3–6 months of expenses saved in a high-yield savings account. This keeps you from falling back on high-interest credit cards during emergencies.

Also:

  • Set up automatic bill payments
  • Monitor your accounts
  • Improve your credit score by paying on time and keeping usage low

Passive Income: The Secret Sauce to Sustainable Freedom

Want freedom? You need income streams that don’t depend on you clocking in.

Some options include:

  • Rental properties
  • REITs
  • Dividend-paying stocks
  • Social Security

If you wait until age 70 to claim Social Security, you’ll get 124% more than if you claim early. That’s a massive difference.

Plus, don’t underestimate side hustles like freelancing, consulting, or tutoring especially in the early stages of retirement.

Keep Adjusting Because Life Will

Markets change. Taxes change. Health changes. You need a plan that can adapt.

That’s why we talk about the 4% rule a guideline, not gospel. Some years, you may need to pull back to preserve your portfolio. That’s called managing sequence of returns risk retiring into a bad market could force you to sell investments at a loss.

Check in on your plan regularly and pivot when needed. Flexibility is freedom.

Final Thoughts

Financial freedom isn’t about getting rich. It’s about getting clear. Clear on your income, your expenses, your values, and your goals. It’s about using your money to support the life you want—not the other way around.

Whether you’re just getting started or refining your strategy, remember this: it’s possible. You can have a plan that works, a life that feels right, and a future you’re excited about.

You just have to start.

Intended for educational purposes only. Opinions expressed are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Neither the information presented, nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Consult your financial professional before making any investment decisions. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES:

• Investment Advisory and Financial Planning Services are offered through Pure Financial Advisors, LLC. A Registered Investment Advisor.

• Pure Financial Advisors, LLC. does not offer tax or legal advice. Consult with a tax advisor or attorney regarding specific situations.

• Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.

• Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values.

• All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

• Intended for educational purposes only and are not intended as individualized advice or a guarantee that you will achieve a desired result. Before implementing any strategies discussed you should consult your tax and financial advisors.

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How Much Cash Should You Keep in Retirement? https://roitv.com/how-much-cash-should-you-keep-in-retirement/ Sat, 07 Jun 2025 12:04:17 +0000 https://roitv.com/?p=3090 Image from ROI TV

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One of the most common questions retirees face is: How much cash should I keep on hand? The answer isn’t one-size-fits-all, but financial experts agree on one thing having a cash buffer is essential for financial and emotional stability.

Let’s explore how to build and maintain cash reserves in retirement while still allowing your investments to grow.

1. Why Cash Reserves Matter in Retirement

Financial planners from firms like Fidelity and Vanguard recommend maintaining 1 to 5 years of essential expenses in cash reserves. These reserves act as a shield during market downturns, so you don’t have to sell investments when they’re down.

Cash should only be used to cover the gap between guaranteed income (like Social Security, pensions, or annuities) and your essential monthly expenses, not your entire retirement budget.

2. How to Calculate Your Cash Reserve Needs

Let’s break it down with examples:

  • If your essential monthly expenses are $4,000 and Social Security provides $1,900, your monthly shortfall is $2,100.
    • 1-year reserve: $25,200
    • 3-year reserve: $75,600
    • 5-year reserve: $126,000
  • For a couple receiving $2,850 in combined Social Security:
    • Monthly shortfall: $1,150
    • 1-year reserve: $13,800
    • 3-year reserve: $41,000
    • 5-year reserve: $69,000

3. Benefits of Keeping Cash Reserves

  • Market protection: Avoid selling investments at a loss during downturns.
  • Risk reduction: Protects against sequence of returns risk when early market losses drain portfolios faster.
  • Peace of mind: Knowing you have cash to cover essentials reduces stress and prevents emotional investing mistakes.

4. The Trade-Offs of Holding Too Much Cash

While cash offers safety, it comes with some downsides:

  • Opportunity cost: Between 1997 and 2023, cash investments underperformed the stock market by roughly 8% per year.
  • Inflation: At a 3% annual rate, the purchasing power of your cash halves in 24 years.
  • Replenishment strategy: Pull gains from your portfolio during strong market years to refill your reserves.

5. The Three-Bucket Strategy: A Smarter Way to Allocate Funds

This popular approach balances immediate access with long-term growth:

  • Bucket 1: Short-Term (1–3 years)
    • Funded with cash or money market accounts.
    • Covers basic expenses when markets are down.
    • Example: $75,600 for a $2,100 monthly gap.
  • Bucket 2: Intermediate-Term (4–10 years)
    • Funded with bonds, CDs, or conservative investments.
    • Bridges the gap once Bucket 1 is depleted.
    • Example: $176,400 for 7 years of expenses.
  • Bucket 3: Long-Term (11+ years)
    • Funded with equities, ETFs, and REITs for growth.
    • Designed to replenish the other buckets and outpace inflation.

6. Should Retirees Still Invest in Stocks?

Yes and here’s why:

  • A 60/40 portfolio (60% stocks, 40% bonds) has historically delivered solid returns and weathered market volatility.
  • Experts recommend maintaining 40–60% in equities, even during retirement, to combat inflation and preserve purchasing power.
  • Just be sure to match your equity exposure to your risk tolerance, time horizon, and income needs.

7. Keep Reviewing and Rebalancing

Your financial plan isn’t static. You should:

  • Review it annually or after life events (e.g., downsizing, medical changes, or a death in the family).
  • Replenish cash reserves during bull markets don’t wait until you’re forced to sell in a downturn.
  • Adjust your strategy based on market conditions, expenses, and personal needs.

8. The Emotional Power of a Cash Buffer

Sometimes, the biggest benefit isn’t financial it’s psychological. Knowing you have 1–5 years of expenses covered in cash lets you sleep better and avoid rash decisions when the market dips.

But balance is key. Too much cash erodes long-term growth. Too little invites panic. The goal is to strike the right middle ground between security and opportunity.

Final Thoughts

Cash reserves are your retirement safety net. They reduce your financial stress, protect against market losses, and give your investments time to recover. By following a three-bucket strategy and calculating your true income gap, you can build a sustainable, confident retirement plan that grows with you.

If you’re wondering how much cash is right for your situation, start with your essential expenses and build from there. Retirement planning isn’t just about surviving it’s about thriving with clarity and control.

All writings are for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not provide investment or financial advice of any kind.

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Why Retirement Spending Needs a Rethink: JP Morgan Challenges the 4% Rule https://roitv.com/why-retirement-spending-needs-a-rethink-jp-morgan-challenges-the-4-rule/ Sun, 04 May 2025 13:04:40 +0000 https://roitv.com/?p=2647 Image from ROI TV

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For decades, traditional retirement planning models have relied on the “4% rule” and blanket inflation adjustments to guide how much people should save and spend in retirement. But new research from JP Morgan, analyzing data from over five million Chase households, is upending that thinking—and encouraging retirees to live more freely.

Retirement Spending Patterns and JP Morgan’s Research Insights
JP Morgan found that retirees don’t spend according to fixed inflation-based models. Instead, real-world retiree spending only grows at about 1.9% annually during the early years of retirement, not 3% as traditional models assume. By age 95, most retirees spend $90,000 annually, not the $146,000 projected by inflation-adjusted models—a $56,000 difference that can significantly affect retirement planning. The takeaway? Many retirees are oversaving and underspending, potentially missing out on quality-of-life experiences.

Critical Spending Periods Around Retirement
One key insight is the spending surge that occurs from two years before to three years after retirement, driven by travel, home renovations, and leisure. This 30% spike in spending typically stabilizes later, which underscores the need for flexible planning: allocate more for early retirement, and taper down as lifestyle needs change.

Sequence of Returns Risk and Portfolio Viability
JP Morgan also addressed sequence of returns risk—the danger of poor market performance early in retirement. Their comparison of two retirees, Mrs. Green and Mrs. Red, shows how early losses can devastate a portfolio, even if long-term returns are identical. A poor start forces retirees to withdraw at depressed values, accelerating depletion. A robust and flexible withdrawal strategy can help mitigate this.

Spending Fluctuations and Behavioral Categories
The idea that retirees spend in a linear, predictable way is outdated. JP Morgan categorized retirees into six spending personas—from “steady eddies” to “roller coasters.” In fact, 56% of retirees experience major spending swings, proving that cookie-cutter models don’t reflect real behavior.

Retirement Spending Phases: Go-Go, Slow-Go, and No-Go Years
JP Morgan affirmed the familiar “three-phase” retirement structure:

  • Go-Go Years (65–74): High activity and discretionary spending, growing at 1.9% annually.
  • Slow-Go Years (75–84): Activity slows, spending increases drop to 0.5%.
  • No-Go Years (85+): Spending declines slightly (-0.5%), with healthcare becoming the dominant expense.

Recognizing these phases helps retirees budget more effectively and avoid underutilizing their funds.

Comparison of CPI-Based Models vs. Category-Based Models
Most advisors still use CPI-based models that assume a fixed 3% inflation rate across all categories. But category-based models—those that account for different spending trends—show retirees need up to 26% less in savings than CPI-based models suggest. For example, while CPI models recommend $1.2–$2 million by age 95, real-world spending patterns justify only $872,000.

Critique of the 4% Rule and Oversaving
The 4% rule, created to ensure retirees don’t outlive their money, may be overly conservative. JP Morgan’s data shows that 90–95% of retirees die with more money than they started with, often because they fear running out of money. This leads to unnecessary sacrifices in lifestyle. A dynamic withdrawal strategy, based on actual spending and market performance, offers better alignment with reality—and more room for enjoyment.


Conclusion: Live Better with Realistic, Data-Driven Retirement Planning
JP Morgan’s research doesn’t just challenge outdated models—it empowers retirees. By aligning your retirement plan with how people actually spend, you can worry less about running out of money and focus more on enjoying life. Dynamic strategies lead to smarter savings, better portfolio sustainability, and a more fulfilling retirement.

All writings are for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not provide investment or financial advice of any kind.

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Navigating the Critical Retirement Zone https://roitv.com/navigating-the-critical-retirement-zone/ Tue, 11 Mar 2025 11:13:04 +0000 https://roitv.com/?p=1798 Image provided by Your Money, Your Wealth

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Understanding the Critical Retirement Zone

The period spanning 5 to 10 years before and after retirement, often referred to as the “critical zone,” is pivotal for financial planning. Decisions made during this time can significantly impact the sustainability of your retirement funds. Transitioning from wealth accumulation to distribution necessitates strategic adjustments to safeguard your financial future.

Adjusting Asset Allocation

As you approach retirement, it’s prudent to reassess your investment portfolio to align with your changing risk tolerance. While a portfolio heavily weighted in stocks (e.g., 80/20 stock-to-bond ratio) may be suitable during your earning years, shifting to a more conservative allocation (e.g., 60/40 or 50/50) can help preserve capital and reduce exposure to market volatility. This adjustment aims to protect your nest egg from significant downturns during the critical zone.

Mitigating Sequence of Returns Risk

Sequence of returns risk refers to the potential negative impact of withdrawing funds during market downturns, which can deplete your portfolio faster than anticipated. Implementing a flexible withdrawal strategy can help mitigate this risk. For instance, adjusting withdrawal amounts based on market performance—reducing withdrawals during downturns and taking larger distributions during strong markets—can enhance the longevity of your portfolio.

Implementing Tax-Efficient Withdrawal Strategies

Developing a tax-efficient withdrawal strategy is crucial for maximizing your retirement income. A common approach involves withdrawing funds in the following order:

  1. Taxable Accounts: Utilize funds from taxable investment accounts first, allowing tax-advantaged accounts to continue growing.
  2. Tax-Deferred Accounts: Next, withdraw from traditional IRAs or 401(k)s, being mindful of required minimum distributions (RMDs) starting at age 72.
  3. Tax-Exempt Accounts: Lastly, tap into Roth IRAs, which offer tax-free withdrawals and are not subject to RMDs during the owner’s lifetime.

This sequence can help manage your taxable income and potentially reduce your overall tax burden in retirement.

fidelity.com

Planning for Longevity

With advancements in healthcare, retirees are living longer, making it essential to plan for a retirement that could last 30 years or more. To ensure your savings endure, consider the following:

  • Conservative Withdrawal Rates: Adhering to a withdrawal rate of around 4% can help prevent depleting your funds prematurely.
  • Inflation Protection: Invest in assets that offer growth potential to maintain your purchasing power over time.
  • Healthcare Costs: Allocate funds for potential healthcare expenses, including long-term care, which can be substantial in later years.

Timing Social Security Benefits

Deciding when to claim Social Security benefits is a critical component of your retirement income strategy. Delaying benefits beyond your full retirement age can result in increased monthly payments. For example, delaying until age 70 can provide a significant boost to your benefits, offering a higher guaranteed income stream for life. This approach can be particularly beneficial if you anticipate a longer lifespan or lack other sources of guaranteed income.

Conclusion

Navigating the critical retirement zone requires careful planning and strategic adjustments to your financial approach. By reassessing your asset allocation, implementing flexible withdrawal and tax strategies, planning for longevity, and making informed decisions about Social Security, you can enhance the sustainability of your retirement funds and achieve financial security in your golden years.

Intended for educational purposes only. Opinions expressed are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Neither the information presented, nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Consult your financial professional before making any investment decisions. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES:

• Investment Advisory and Financial Planning Services are offered through Pure Financial Advisors, LLC. A Registered Investment Advisor.

• Pure Financial Advisors, LLC. does not offer tax or legal advice. Consult with a tax advisor or attorney regarding specific situations.

• Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.

• Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values.

• All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

• Intended for educational purposes only and are not intended as individualized advice or a guarantee that you will achieve a desired result. Before implementing any strategies discussed you should consult your tax and financial advisors.

The post Navigating the Critical Retirement Zone appeared first on ROI TV.

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