DiversyFund CEO Craig Cecilio: The Next Commercial Real Estate Cycle May Be the Last One Priced the Old Way
As AI moves underwriting and valuation toward real-time NAV, San Diego-based DiversyFund argues a structural reset in CRE pricing is approaching — and how investors position today will determine what they capture before yields compress.
DiversyFund, one of the original real estate crowdfunding platforms launched in the wake of the 2012 JOBS Act, is articulating a thesis that is beginning to surface across institutional research desks: the next commercial real estate cycle may be the last one underwritten and valued the way the industry has worked for decades.
According to CEO Craig Cecilio, the reset is being driven by the convergence of two forces. First, a historic refinancing wave is forcing the market to reprice. Roughly $875 billion in commercial and multifamily mortgages are scheduled to mature in 2026 alone, according to Mortgage Bankers Association data — part of a broader wave of more than $4 trillion in CRE debt expected to mature between 2025 and 2029. Second, artificial intelligence is moving out of the back office and into the core decision functions of the asset class — underwriting, comparables, valuation, and net asset value calculation.
“Once this debt cycle works through the system, the industry that re-emerges on the other side will not price assets the way the old one did,” said Craig Cecilio, CEO of DiversyFund. “Underwriting, comps, valuation, NAV — all of it is becoming a real-time data problem. And once it is a data problem, the opacity that made commercial real estate a higher-yielding, less efficient asset class begins to disappear.”
From Periodic Estimates to Real-Time NAV
The DiversyFund thesis is straightforward. For most of the modern history of commercial real estate, valuation has been a periodic exercise. Appraisals are commissioned. Comps are pulled manually. Cap rates are debated. NAVs are reported quarterly, often based on data that is already weeks or months old. That structural lag is the source of much of the asset class’s risk premium — investors are paid, in part, to tolerate the fact that they cannot see exactly what they own at any given moment.
That is now changing. Morgan Stanley has estimated that AI could automate roughly 37% of tasks across the commercial real estate sector, unlocking as much as $34 billion in efficiency gains by 2030. JLL has documented AI-driven valuation models that pull in real-time signals — local economic activity, mobility patterns, supply constraints — to dynamically update pricing rather than wait for quarterly cycles. Research from PwC and the Urban Land Institute describes a parallel shift in underwriting, where machine-learning systems handle document ingestion, risk scoring, and scenario modeling on timelines measured in minutes rather than weeks.
BlackRock’s 2026 Private Markets Outlook reinforces a related shift, framing private markets as evolving toward a more liquid, integrated ecosystem driven by data transparency and accessibility, and noting that real estate is entering 2026 in a fundamentally different form than it held only a few years earlier.
Why Yields May Compress on the Other Side
The implication, in DiversyFund’s view, is structural. As underwriting, comparables, and NAV calculations become continuous and transparent rather than periodic and estimated, the information asymmetries that historically commanded illiquidity premiums and risk premiums in commercial real estate will narrow. Less opacity means less perceived risk. Less perceived risk means lower required yields.
In other words, today’s coupons on well-structured CRE-backed income may not be available indefinitely. Once the current debt-driven repricing works its way through the system and AI-native standards begin entering the marketplace at scale, the investor compensation profile of the asset class is likely to look meaningfully different.
“We have been quietly building toward this for over a decade,” Cecilio said. “The question for capital today is not whether AI will reshape this asset class. It is whether you are positioned in the structures that capture today’s pricing before the transition completes.”
DiversyFund’s Positioning
DiversyFund’s current focus reflects that view. The firm is offering a series of structured fixed income products designed for high net worth investors and family offices seeking durable, contractual income — investors who prioritize cash flow, downside protection, and clear collateral over speculative upside. The firm’s existing multifamily portfolio continues to perform according to plan, a track record Cecilio attributes to the same underwriting discipline that allowed DiversyFund to navigate a stretch of industry turbulence that took down many of its post-JOBS Act peers.
That capital preservation discipline, the firm argues, is what positions it to operate cleanly through the transition ahead — and to deliver the kind of structured income product that will look increasingly attractive as the asset class repricies.
About DiversyFund
DiversyFund is a San Diego-based real estate and private credit investment platform and one of the original real estate crowdfunding platforms launched following the 2012 JOBS Act. The firm focuses on capital preservation and durable income for accredited investors, family offices, and high net worth individuals. Its current product suite includes structured fixed income offerings backed by real estate and an existing portfolio of multifamily assets that continues to perform according to plan.
To learn more, visit www.diversyfund.com
